Insurers need a better way to plan for impact of pandemic flu

The number and rate of change of the key variables surrounding bird flu makes it impossible for insurance companies to lay down fixed continuity plans but, according to Donna Mayo and Malcolm Stokes of PA Consulting Group*, by modelling the risk and planning dynamically, insurers can influence the impact of a bird flu pandemic on their own businesses and greatly improve their chances of survival in a subsequent recession.

The globally spreading H5N1 virus (‘bird flu’) has to date met all prerequisites but one for the start of a human pandemic - the ability to spread efficiently and sustainably among humans. Experts within the United Nations, World Health Organisation and elsewhere estimate that only one or two additional (out of an originally needed 20+) mutations may be needed before this can occur.