Analysis: The US might deserve poor marks in FATF's fifth MER, but will it ever be grey-listed?

The Financial Action Task Force's (FATF's) fifth mutual evaluation round (MER5) assessments on early subjects Latvia, Belgium and Malaysia are being digested and discussed, and the US is now under investigation. An onsite MER visit was scheduled in March and conclusions will be tabled at the FATF's October 2026 plenary, with a report due in 2027. But what will happen if these findings - encompassing performance in anti-money laundering (AML), combating the financing of terrorism (CFT), countering the financing of proliferation (CFP) and sanctions performance - are critical? How will the US government react - with reform or bluster?