RMS on risk of H5N1 avian flu outbreak from research laboratories

Last week, research resumed on the highly virulent H5N1 avian influenza viruses after a year-long ban. With the controversial lifting of the moratorium, researchers will now try to increase the transmissibility or virulence of H5N1 to help prepare vaccines and other medical treatments in case of a pandemic. According to analysis from catastrophe modeller RMS’ infectious disease model, however, pursuing this “gain of function” research increases the chance of a man-made H5N1 pandemic. While the probability of such an event occurring remains low, insurance companies need to ensure they have enough capital to manage the risk.