Northeast US “overdue” hurricane

The Northeast region of the US is “overdue” a major hurricane, warns rating agency and analyst AM Best. The area has avoided a major storm since 1991 but AM Best said losses from a category 2 or 3 storm “would be significant because of the density of property in the region”. Catastrophe modellers estimate losses from a Northeastern hurricane similar to the 1938 Great New England Hurricane could result in insured losses greater than $30bn, depending on the storm track. Hurricanes that reach the Northeast can undergo an extratropical transition, intensifying and accelerating with destructive wind fields greater than those of hurricanes in the tropics, AM Best said. However, gauging the risk of Northeastern hurricanes can be difficult because of uncertainties within the historical record regarding hurricane wind speeds and intensity.