LA NINA WANES, HURRICANE PREDICTIONS LOWERED

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium led by Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, has lowered its prediction of US and Atlantic basin hurricane activity to 20% above the 1950-to-2007 norm, compared with its April 7 prediction of 35% above the norm. TSR said that the lowering of the forecast was due to “the unexpected rapid waning of La Niña conditions now occurring in the tropical Pacific”. It anticipated 14 named storms for the Atlantic Basin as a whole, seven of them being hurricanes and three of them being “intense”. Two hurricanes and four tropical storms were expected to strike land. Meanwhile, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will see above-normal activity, with up to 16 named storms and up to five major hurricanes. The NOAA forecast was in line with Colorado State University’s projection last month that the June-to-November storm season would produce 15 named storms, of which eight would reach hurricane status and two would become major storms. The NOAA said that there is a 69% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall in the US.