Why bad statistics are not a myth

The statistics produced by the Central Union of Marine Underwriters (CEFOR ) are often met with scepticism. Here Christian Irgens, a former chairman of CEFOR’s Statistics Forum addresses a number of common concerns. How can a market survive with results as the ones reported by CEFOR, and why is the CEFOR average always worse than the individual results of all the reporting companies? While acknowledging the fact that the vast majority of fleets tend to show good results, even if the market results are terrible, Mr Irgens argues that the ongoing and relentless belief of hull and machinery underwriters in fleet statistics prevents them from addressing deeper problems in the market

Two days late for “All Fools’ Day” Scandinavian marine underwriters convened in Oslo last week for the Central Union of Marine Underwriter’s (CEFOR) annual meeting. The meeting is most noted for presenting annual statistics from the CEFOR database, encompassing almost 50% of the world fleet’s gross tonnage.