When will the party end?

THERE is a widespread feeling in the reinsurance market that the only thing that is going to wreck the party is the arrival of irresponsible underwriting capacity. As Monday’s analysis of the forthcoming year-end renewals stressed, most players believe they can still make a good return from this market for another few years. Most analysts agree the reinsurers are not being overconfident and predict profits in 2005 and 2006. The irresponsible capacity that would hasten the fall in rates and muck up everyone else’s plans would normally come from Lloyd’s or Bermuda. The Bermudian class of 2001 is still expanding because they are still young and there is good business to be had, albeit in a fast-shrinking market.